A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
